SharperGamblerSHARPERGAMBLER BETA
Round 12

Dutch Grand Prix

Circuit Zandvoort · Netherlands
Lap 4.259 kmDistance 307 km (72 laps) Format sprint_qualifying
Next: Practice 1
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Fri 21 Aug 3:30 AM MST

Weekend schedule

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST
Practice 1
Fri 21 Aug 3:30 AM MST
scheduled
Sprint Qualifying
Fri 21 Aug 7:30 AM MST
scheduled
Sprint
Sat 22 Aug 3:00 AM MST
scheduled
Qualifying
Sat 22 Aug 7:00 AM MST
scheduled
Race
Sun 23 Aug 6:00 AM MST
scheduled

Weather forecast

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

Open-Meteo, fetched at last regeneration (baked in, works offline).

All sessions complete.

Predictions

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

Qualifying prediction

Showing LIVE — recomputed from current data · stage Pre-weekend (season floor)
this IS the season-average floor — the permanent benchmark, kept every weekend
SPRINT WEEKEND — the practice blend cannot run. There is no FP2 or FP3 before qualifying, and FP1 is not a validated session for this model.
The official qualifying prediction for this round is therefore the season-average floor, exactly as it was before the blend was promoted. This is a clean fallback, not a degraded blend.
#DriverPole%Top3%Top10%
1ANT3775100
2RUS1751100
3HAM1549100
4NOR103899
5VER103899
6LEC93499
7PIA21296
8HAD0280
9LAW0161
10LIN0050
11GAS0038
12HUL0036
13COL0016
14BOR0014
15SAI004
16BEA004
17OCO002
18ALB001
19PER000
20ALO000
21BOT000
22STR000

No frozen version for this stage yet; the live figures above will be frozen when this stage locks.

Official version: after FP3, before qualifying (not locked yet).

Race prediction

Showing LIVE — recomputed from current data · stage Floor (season grid)
this IS the season-average floor — the permanent benchmark, kept every weekend
PLACEHOLDER, not a model. Finishing position is predicted from grid slot only — no driver, team, car pace or race pace is used, so it structurally cannot reorder the front of the grid.
A real race model is in development; this is the baseline it must beat.
#DriverWin%Pod%Pts%DNF%
1ANT36678515
2RUS22558317
3HAM16478315
4NOR12438216
5VER5257717
6LEC4217517
7PIA2137215
8HAD186515
9LAW176415
10LIN045416
11GAS034916
12HUL024217
13COL013515
14SAI012518
15BOR002315
16BEA001915
17OCO001516
18PER001217
19ALB001216
20ALO001116
21STR001018
22BOT00817

No frozen version for this stage yet; the live figures above will be frozen when this stage locks.

Official version: after qualifying is analysed (official grid) (not locked yet).

Results

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

No completed sessions yet this weekend.

Track sector map

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

The circuit layout for Circuit Zandvoort will appear here after the next automatic data refresh (it is fetched once, without any telemetry download).

Grip vs energy — where the lap time went

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

Budapest qualifying — reference lap NOR 77.207s. Across this session 89% of all time lost was mechanical, 4% was lost on straights, and 8% is unattributed — full throttle through faster curves, where grip and power limit the car at once. Mechanical plus energy is therefore not the whole story.

TeamGapMechanicalStraight-lineUnattributedIn words
Ferrari+0.125-0.113+0.107+0.1320.12s off — -0.11s mechanical, 0.11s straight-line
McLaren+0.239+0.254+0.031-0.0470.24s off — 0.25s mechanical, 0.03s straight-line
Mercedes+0.413+0.339+0.035+0.0370.41s off — 0.34s mechanical, 0.03s straight-line
Red Bull Racing+0.584+0.570+0.099-0.0840.58s off — 0.57s mechanical, 0.10s straight-line
Racing Bulls+1.316+1.293+0.042-0.0161.32s off — 1.29s mechanical, 0.04s straight-line
Audi+1.647+1.333+0.041+0.2751.65s off — 1.33s mechanical, 0.04s straight-line
Alpine+1.729+1.696-0.039+0.0701.73s off — 1.70s mechanical, -0.04s straight-line
Haas F1 Team+2.777+2.524+0.042+0.2112.78s off — 2.52s mechanical, 0.04s straight-line
Aston Martin+3.027+2.375+0.347+0.3143.03s off — 2.37s mechanical, 0.35s straight-line
Williams+3.433+3.155-0.001+0.2813.43s off — 3.16s mechanical, -0.00s straight-line
Cadillac+3.897+3.587-0.007+0.3193.90s off — 3.59s mechanical, -0.01s straight-line

Sections are classified by lateral load, not by curvature — a corner taken at 0.7g is not grip-limited when the car can pull 5g. The climbing-power term is removed using track altitude. See reports/grip_energy_split.md.

Track history — Circuit Zandvoort

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

All computed from our data (5 races with lap/results on file). Small samples flagged.

5/5
pole → win
-0.6
avg grid→finish change (±4.6)
9%
historical DNF rate

Safety cars: 0 SC 42% · 1 30% · 2 16% · 3+ 12% from 5 races — small, UNVALIDATED

Pit strategy — how this track rewards stopping early

Undercut / overcut: undercut-strong — the driver who pits FIRST gains +0.74 places on average (175 pit cycles, 5 races; F1-wide average +0.47)

Under a safety car: HIGH — a safety car rewrites the strategy here — first-stopper gain becomes +0.14 (a swing of -0.60) (355 caution cycles, 67% of all cycles here)

Descriptors, not predictions — built from every season we hold, and read for insight. Neither has been tested as a model component. Caution cycles are excluded from the grade because a safety-car stop is a different thing (the field compresses and stopping becomes cheap).

Circuit character — the five dimensions

Expert archetype: Hungary-type — narrow tight permanent, slow

DimensionValue Where it sits in the fieldBand
Passing0.33 26 of 28 — easier to pass than 91% of circuitsEasy
Tyre wear2.74 29 of 31 — harder on tyres than 92% of circuits3-stop
Downforce296.3 km/h 11 of 31 — runs less wing than 34% of circuitsMed — BORDERLINEclosest cut-off 0.03 away
Speed208.2 km/h 9 of 31 — faster than 27% of circuitsSlow — BORDERLINEclosest cut-off 2.07 away
Grip2.92% 22 of 30 — evolves more than 72% of circuitsLow — BORDERLINEclosest cut-off 0.08 away

DESCRIPTIVE, not a prediction, and not wired into anything. Circuits form a CONTINUUM on all five dimensions — the apparent groupings were single detached circuits at the edges of the range. So the continuous values and the position bar are the content; the band label is a reading convenience and is marked BORDERLINE when it sits close to a cut-off (70% of all labels do). Higher downforce means LOWER trap speed, so a low number = more wing. Grip is the weakest dimension — its two signals disagree on 17 of 31 circuits (here: both signals agree).

Best current drivers here (avg finish)

DriverAvg finishRaces
VER1.45
HAD3.01
LEC3.73
PIA4.73
HAM5.04

News (last 7 days)

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST

Regulation first — it can invalidate our data. Gossip and other series already stripped.

Power rankings

updated 2026-08-02 9:07 AM MST
Read the WEEKEND column as DESCRIPTIVE, not a forecast. It reports who has actually been quick this weekend on a like-for-like tyre. We have MEASURED that this does NOT beat season average as a predictor of the result, so do not treat it as a prediction. The SEASON column is our season form measure.

Weekend column source: awaiting practice.

Drivers

DriverSeasonWeekendShift
ANT1awaiting
RUS2awaiting
HAM3awaiting
LEC4awaiting
NOR5awaiting
VER6awaiting
PIA7awaiting
HAD8awaiting
LAW9awaiting
GAS10awaiting
LIN11awaiting
HUL12awaiting
BOR13awaiting
COL14awaiting
BEA15awaiting
OCO16awaiting
SAI17awaiting
ALB18awaiting
ALO19awaiting
PER20awaiting
BOT21awaiting
STR22awaiting

Teams

TeamSeasonWeekendShift
Mercedes1awaiting
Ferrari2awaiting
McLaren3awaiting
Red Bull Racing4awaiting
Racing Bulls5awaiting
Alpine6awaiting
Audi7awaiting
Haas F1 Team8awaiting
Williams9awaiting
Aston Martin10awaiting
Cadillac11awaiting