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Free NFL Weekly Research Report 🍺 Buy me a Beer
Generated Fri, Jul 24 2026 · 8:28 PM — SAMPLE: a completed Week 16 2025 slate shown in the offseason (real model output, shown in preview — not a current prediction). Help us keep this report free
Week at a Glance
Game
Open
Model
O/U
Model
LV@HOU
HOU −14.5
HOU −17.2
37.5
52.3
BUF@CLE
BUF −10.0
BUF −12.1
42.5
39.3
PIT@DET
DET −7.0
DET −7.2
49.5
49.0
KC@TEN
KC −3.5
KC −7.1QB
37.5
41.6
PHI@WAS
PHI −6.0
PHI −5.9
45.5
47.5
NYJ@NO
NO −4.5
NO −5.7
40.5
42.3
JAX@DEN
DEN −3.0
DEN −5.7
45.5
48.8
CIN@MIA
MIA −1.5
MIA −4.1
50.5
44.0
GB@CHI
not posted
GB −3.4
—
46.8
NE@BAL
BAL −2.5
NE −1.5
48.5
46.8
ATL@ARI
ATL −2.5
ARI −1.3
46.5
44.1
LAC@DAL
DAL −1.5
DAL −1.3
49.5
49.2
MIN@NYG
MIN −2.5
MIN −1.2
44.5
40.1
SF@IND
SF −5.5
IND −0.7QB
46.5
51.8
TB@CAR
TB −2.5
TB −0.6
45.5
43.4
LA@SEA
not posted
pick’em
—
47.5
■ agrees · ■ mild · ■ strong · QB starting QB out · Open = the opening line the model references (not a live book price)
Sample week
LV @ HOU
2.7 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
HOU −14.5
Opening line: HOU −14.5 Lean
Total
O/U 52.3
Open 37.5 · over 14.8
Team Efficiency vs League Average
LV-7.6%32nd/32
-4.1 off · -3.5 def
HOU+2.2%8th/32
-2.6 off · +4.8 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors HOU by 17.2, vs 14.5 at the opener — leans 2.7 further to HOU.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land below the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field +2.1Team-strength +7.1Efficiency +4.8
Key injury
None reported
Weather
Indoors — no factor
The facts — for your own read
HOU
3rd down 39%
RZ TD 44%
Def 3rd-down stop 68%
TO margin +8
LV
3rd down 27%
RZ TD 69%
Def 3rd-down stop 52%
TO margin +0
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
LV
Offense
QBGeno Smith60% cmp · 6.0 y/attC+
RBAshton Jeanty3.7 y/car · 5 TDD+
WRTre Tucker12.2 y/rec · 16% tgtB
WRJack Bech11.2 y/rec · 5% tgtB−
WRTyler Lockett7.0 y/rec · 3% tgtprov
TEBrock Bowers10.6 y/rec · 15% tgtC+
OLUnit30% prs allw · 3.6 RB y/carD
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLMaxx Crosby10.0 sk · 2.0 prs/gA+
DLJonah Laulu4.0 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
DLAdam Butler1.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB
DLMalcolm Koonce4.5 sk · 1.2 prs/gA
LBJamal Adams2.1 tkl/g · 4 TFLB−
LBElandon Roberts3.8 tkl/g · 6 TFLA−
LBDevin White7.6 tkl/g · 11 TFLA+
CBDarien Porter3 PBU · 0 INT—
CBEric Stokes5 PBU · 0 INT—
CBGreedy Vance1 PBU · 0 INT—
SJeremy Chinn6.0 tkl/g · 3 TFLA+
SIsaiah Pola-Mao4.4 tkl/g · 3 TFLA
HOU
Offense
QBC.J. Stroud59% cmp · 6.6 y/attB−
RBWoody Marks3.6 y/car · 3 TDD+
WRNico Collins15.4 y/rec · 18% tgtA+
WRJayden Higgins12.5 y/rec · 12% tgtB+
WRXavier Hutchinson12.0 y/rec · 11% tgtB
TEDalton Schultz9.6 y/rec · 16% tgtC
OLUnit18% prs allw · 4.0 RB y/carC+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLWill Anderson Jr.15.5 sk · 2.2 prs/gA+
DLTommy Togiai1.5 sk · 0.4 prs/gB
DLSheldon Rankins4.5 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLDanielle Hunter18.0 sk · 2.4 prs/gA+
LBHenry To'oTo'o4.2 tkl/g · 10 TFLA
LBAzeez Al-Shaair4.8 tkl/g · 2 TFLA
LBE.J. Speed3.2 tkl/g · 3 TFLB+
CBDerek Stingley Jr.15 PBU · 4 INT—
CBKamari Lassiter21 PBU · 4 INT—
CBMyles Bryant0 PBU · 0 INT—
SCalen Bullock3.3 tkl/gB+
SJalen Pitre4.1 tkl/g · 7 TFLA
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
BUF @ CLE
2.1 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
BUF −10.0
Opening line: BUF −10.0 Lean
Total
O/U 39.3
Open 42.5 · under 3.2
Team Efficiency vs League Average
BUF+5.6%3rd/32
+5.0 off · +0.6 def
CLE-4.8%30th/32
-9.2 off · +4.4 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors BUF by 12.1, vs 10.0 at the opener — leans 2.1 further to BUF.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land above the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +6.5Efficiency +3.7
Key injury
Deshaun Watson (QB) Out · David Njoku (TE) Out
Weather
25°F · wind 16 mph
The facts — for your own read
CLE
3rd down 26%
RZ TD 58%
Def 3rd-down stop 69%
TO margin +0
BUF
3rd down 45%
RZ TD 70%
Def 3rd-down stop 59%
TO margin +3
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
BUF
Offense
QBJosh Allen64% cmp · 7.2 y/attA
RBJames Cook III5.1 y/car · 12 TDB+
RBReggie Gilliam2.0 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRKhalil Shakir9.3 y/rec · 19% tgtC
WRJoshua Palmer13.8 y/rec · 6% tgtA−
WRKeon Coleman11.2 y/rec · 11% tgtB−
TEDalton Kincaid14.2 y/rec · 10% tgtA−
OLUnit20% prs allw · 5.2 RB y/carB+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLGreg Rousseau8.0 sk · 2.0 prs/gA+
DLDeone Walker1.0 sk · 0.3 prs/gB
DLDaQuan Jones3.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA−
DLJoey Bosa5.0 sk · 1.3 prs/gA
LBMatt Milano4.0 tkl/g · 8 TFLA
LBTerrel Bernard4.1 tkl/g · 7 TFLA
LBDorian Williams2.7 tkl/g · 1 TFLB
CBTre'Davious White13 PBU · 1 INT—
CBChristian Benford6 PBU · 2 INT—
CBTaron Johnson4 PBU · 0 INT—
SJordan Poyer4.8 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
SCole Bishop4.4 tkl/g · 6 TFLA
CLE
Offense
QBShedeur Sanders51% cmp · 6.0 y/attD+
RBQuinshon Judkins3.6 y/car · 7 TDD
WRJerry Jeudy12.0 y/rec · 17% tgtB
WRCedric Tillman12.9 y/rec · 6% tgtB+
WRIsaiah Bond17.6 y/rec · 7% tgtA+
TEHarold Fannin Jr.10.2 y/rec · 18% tgtC+
OLUnit30% prs allw · 3.9 RB y/carD
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLAlex Wright5.5 sk · 1.1 prs/gA
DLShelby Harris1.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB
DLMason Graham0.5 sk · 0.3 prs/gB
DLMyles Garrett23.0 sk · 3.6 prs/gA+
LBMohamoud Diabate2.4 tkl/g · 3 TFLB
LBCarson Schwesinger6.4 tkl/g · 11 TFLA+
LBDevin Bush5.4 tkl/g · 7 TFLA+
CBDenzel Ward↑injout
CBTyson Campbell18 PBU · 1 INT—
CBMyles Harden4 PBU · 0 INT—
SGrant Delpit3.9 tkl/g · 4 TFLA−
SRonnie Hickman4.5 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
PIT @ DET
0.2 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
DET −7.0
Opening line: DET −7.0 Toss-up
Total
O/U 49.0
Open 49.5 · under 0.5
Team Efficiency vs League Average
PIT-1.6%21st/32
+0.1 off · -1.7 def
DET+2.5%7th/32
+1.5 off · +1.0 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors DET by 7.2, vs 7.0 at the opener — close to the market here.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land below the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field +2.1Team-strength +1.7Efficiency +1.4
Key injury
Kerby Joseph (S) Out · T.J. Watt (LB) Out
Weather
Indoors — no factor
The facts — for your own read
DET
3rd down 34%
RZ TD 71%
Def 3rd-down stop 70%
TO margin +3
PIT
3rd down 34%
RZ TD 59%
Def 3rd-down stop 60%
TO margin +5
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
PIT
Offense
QBAaron Rodgers61% cmp · 6.1 y/attB−
RBJaylen Warren4.5 y/car · 6 TDB−
RBConnor Heyward2.9 y/car · 2 TDprov
WRDK Metcalf14.6 y/rec · 17% tgtA
WRCalvin Austin III11.2 y/rec · 10% tgtB−
WRAdam Thielen10.9 y/rec · 3% tgtprov
TEDarnell Washington11.7 y/rec · 7% tgtB
OLUnit18% prs allw · 4.4 RB y/carB†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Isaac Seumalo)
Defense
DLCameron Heyward3.5 sk · 0.7 prs/gA−
DLKeeanu Benton6.5 sk · 1.1 prs/gA
DLDerrick Harmon4.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA−
LBT.J. Watt↑injout
LBPatrick Queen5.3 tkl/g · 8 TFLA+
LBPayton Wilson5.7 tkl/g · 6 TFLA+
LBAlex Highsmith3.1 tkl/g · 15 TFLB+
CBJames Pierre↑injout
CBJoey Porter Jr.16 PBU · 1 INT—
CBBrandin Echols7 PBU · 3 INT—
SKyle Dugger2.9 tkl/g · 2 TFLB
SJalen Ramsey4.0 tkl/g · 4 TFLA
DET
Offense
QBJared Goff64% cmp · 7.4 y/attA
RBJahmyr Gibbs5.0 y/car · 13 TDB+
WRAmon-Ra St. Brown12.0 y/rec · 28% tgtB
WRJameson Williams17.1 y/rec · 16% tgtA+
WRIsaac TeSlaa14.9 y/rec · 4% tgtprov
TEShane Zylstra6.7 y/rec · 1% tgtprov
OLUnit25% prs allw · 4.8 RB y/carB−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLAidan Hutchinson14.5 sk · 2.9 prs/gA+
DLAlim McNeill1.0 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
DLDJ Reader0.0 sk · 0.3 prs/gB
DLAl-Quadin Muhammad11.0 sk · 2.4 prs/gA+
LBAlex Anzalone4.6 tkl/g · 4 TFLA
LBJack Campbell7.7 tkl/g · 9 TFLA+
LBDerrick Barnes3.5 tkl/g · 6 TFLA−
CBRock Ya-Sin9 PBU · 0 INT—
CBD.J. Reed7 PBU · 2 INT—
CBAmik Robertson12 PBU · 1 INT—
SAvonte Maddox3.4 tkl/g · 1 TFLA−
SThomas Harper3.1 tkl/g · 1 TFLB+
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
KC @ TEN
3.6 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
KC −3.5
Opening line: KC −3.5 Lean
Total
O/U 41.6
Open 37.5 · over 4.1
Team Efficiency vs League Average
KC+3.1%6th/32
+1.6 off · +1.5 def
TEN-5.6%31st/32
-4.3 off · -1.4 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors KC by 7.1, vs 3.5 at the opener — leans 3.6 further to KC.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land below the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +6.5Efficiency +4.3QB out: Mahomes -4.0
Key injury
Ali Gaye (LB) Out · Bryce Oliver (WR) Out
Weather
51°F · wind 8 mph
The facts — for your own read
TEN
3rd down 28%
RZ TD 59%
Def 3rd-down stop 64%
TO margin -3
KC
3rd down 37%
RZ TD 58%
Def 3rd-down stop 58%
TO margin -6
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
KC
Offense
QBGardner Minshew46% cmp · 2.8 y/attprov
RBIsiah Pacheco3.9 y/car · 1 TDC−
WRRashee Rice↑injout
WRXavier Worthy12.7 y/rec · 12% tgtB+
WRHollywood Brown12.0 y/rec · 12% tgtB
TETravis Kelce11.2 y/rec · 17% tgtB−
OLUnit27% prs allw · 4.4 RB y/carC†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Jaylon Moore)
Defense
DLGeorge Karlaftis6.0 sk · 1.8 prs/gA+
DLChris Jones7.0 sk · 1.9 prs/gA+
DLDerrick Nnadi↑injout
DLMike Danna1.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB+
LBDrue Tranquill4.5 tkl/g · 10 TFLA
LBNick Bolton6.4 tkl/g · 10 TFLA+
LBCooper McDonald1.5 tkl/g · 1 TFLC−
CBTrent McDuffie↑injout
CBJaylen Watson6 PBU · 2 INT—
CBMike Edwards1 PBU · 0 INT—
SChamarri Conner5.5 tkl/g · 4 TFLA+
SBryan Cook4.2 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
TEN
Offense
QBCam Ward54% cmp · 5.3 y/attD+
RBTony Pollard4.5 y/car · 5 TDB−
WRElic Ayomanor12.6 y/rec · 14% tgtB+
WRChimere Dike8.8 y/rec · 12% tgtC−
WRVan Jefferson12.1 y/rec · 8% tgtB
TEGunnar Helm8.1 y/rec · 9% tgtD+
OLUnit27% prs allw · 4.3 RB y/carC−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLSebastian Joseph-Day2.0 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
DLT'Vondre Sweat2.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB+
DLJeffery Simmons11.0 sk · 2.1 prs/gA+
LBJihad Ward1.3 tkl/g · 4 TFLC−
LBCody Barton3.3 tkl/g · 4 TFLB+
LBCedric Gray↑injout
LBArden Key1.3 tkl/g · 6 TFLC−
CBDarrell Baker Jr.7 PBU · 0 INT—
CBJalyn Armour-Davis2 PBU · 0 INT—
CBMarcus Harris5 PBU · 0 INT—
SAmani Hooker4.3 tkl/g · 3 TFLA
SKendell Brooks2.8 tkl/gB
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
PHI @ WAS
0.1 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
WAS +6.0
Opening line: PHI −6.0 Toss-up
Total
O/U 47.5
Open 45.5 · over 2.0
Team Efficiency vs League Average
PHI+1.9%11th/32
-0.7 off · +2.6 def
WAS-3.2%26th/32
+0.6 off · -3.8 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors PHI by 5.9, vs 6.0 at the opener — close to the market here.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land above the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +3.8Efficiency +3.9
Key injury
Jayden Daniels (QB) Out · Colson Yankoff (TE) Out
Weather
42°F · wind 7 mph
The facts — for your own read
WAS
3rd down 36%
RZ TD 60%
Def 3rd-down stop 59%
TO margin -7
PHI
3rd down 34%
RZ TD 67%
Def 3rd-down stop 62%
TO margin +4
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
PHI
Offense
QBJalen Hurts60% cmp · 6.5 y/attB−
RBSaquon Barkley4.1 y/car · 7 TDC−
RBBen VanSumeren—
WRA.J. Brown12.7 y/rec · 22% tgtB+
WRDeVonta Smith12.7 y/rec · 22% tgtB+
WRJahan Dotson14.6 y/rec · 6% tgtA
TEDallas Goedert9.8 y/rec · 16% tgtC
OLUnit16% prs allw · 4.3 RB y/carB−†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Lane Johnson)
Defense
DLMoro Ojomo6.0 sk · 1.0 prs/gA
DLTy Robinson0.0 sk · 0.3 prs/gprov
DLJalen Carter↑injout
LBJaelan Phillips2.3 tkl/g · 7 TFLB−
LBZack Baun5.7 tkl/g · 7 TFLA+
LBNakobe Dean4.8 tkl/g · 7 TFLA
LBNolan Smith Jr.2.0 tkl/g · 2 TFLB−
CBAdoree' Jackson11 PBU · 1 INT—
CBQuinyon Mitchell20 PBU · 2 INT—
CBCooper DeJean18 PBU · 2 INT—
SReed Blankenship4.3 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
SMarcus Epps2.5 tkl/g · 1 TFLB
WAS
Offense
QBMarcus Mariota57% cmp · 6.9 y/attB−
RBChris Rodriguez Jr.4.5 y/car · 6 TDB−
WRTerry McLaurin15.3 y/rec · 12% tgtA+
WRDeebo Samuel10.1 y/rec · 20% tgtC+
WRTreylon Burks13.0 y/rec · 4% tgtprov
TEJohn Bates9.4 y/rec · 3% tgtprov
OLUnit22% prs allw · 4.8 RB y/carB†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Laremy Tunsil)
Defense
DLJalyn Holmes0.0 sk · 0.1 prs/gB−
DLDaron Payne3.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA
DLJavon Kinlaw0.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
DLPreston Smith0.5 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
LBFrankie Luvu3.6 tkl/g · 5 TFLA−
LBBobby Wagner6.9 tkl/g · 8 TFLA+
LBVon Miller1.5 tkl/g · 6 TFLC−
CBAntonio Hamilton Sr.2 PBU · 0 INT—
CBMike Sainristil12 PBU · 4 INT—
CBNoah Igbinoghene5 PBU · 0 INT—
SJeremy Reaves4.1 tkl/g · 5 TFLA
SWill Harris3.3 tkl/g · 1 TFLB+
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
NYJ @ NO
1.2 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
NO −4.5
Opening line: NO −4.5 Slight lean
Total
O/U 42.3
Open 40.5 · over 1.8
Team Efficiency vs League Average
NYJ-2.9%25th/32
-2.4 off · -0.5 def
NO-2.1%22nd/32
-1.4 off · -0.7 def
Why the model differs
Views split
Model favors NO by 5.7, vs 4.5 at the opener — leans 1.2 further to NO.
Mostly home field here — the team-strength and efficiency views nearly cancel, so the edge is thin.
Home field +2.1Team-strength +0.8Efficiency +2.1QB out: Rattler contextQB out: Fields context
Key injury
Tyrod Taylor (QB) Questionable · Justin Fields (QB) Questionable
Weather
Indoors — no factor
The facts — for your own read
NO
3rd down 38%
RZ TD 52%
Def 3rd-down stop 71%
TO margin -6
NYJ
3rd down 38%
RZ TD 50%
Def 3rd-down stop 69%
TO margin -12
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
NYJ
Offense
QBBrady Cook51% cmp · 4.3 y/attD
RBBreece Hall4.4 y/car · 4 TDC+
RBAndrew Beck5.0 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRJohn Metchie III4.5 y/rec · 1% tgtprov
WRAdonai Mitchell12.5 y/rec · 10% tgtB+
WRIsaiah Williams7.4 y/rec · 6% tgtD+
TEMason Taylor↑injout
OLUnit31% prs allw · 4.6 RB y/carC
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLWill McDonald IV8.0 sk · 2.2 prs/gA+
DLHarrison Phillips0.5 sk · 0.1 prs/gC+
DLJay Tufele0.0 sk · 0.0 prs/gD
DLJermaine Johnson3.0 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
LBKiko Mauigoa↑injout
LBJamien Sherwood6.4 tkl/g · 8 TFLA+
LBQuincy Williams4.8 tkl/g · 8 TFLA
CBQwan'tez Stiggers3 PBU · 0 INT—
CBBrandon Stephens9 PBU · 0 INT—
CBJa'Sir Taylor1 PBU · 0 INT—
SMalachi Moore4.6 tkl/g · 3 TFLA
SKeidron Smith11.0 tkl/gprov
NO
Offense
QBTyler Shough62% cmp · 6.6 y/attB
RBAlvin Kamara↑injout
WRChris Olave11.6 y/rec · 24% tgtB
WRMason Tipton6.9 y/rec · 3% tgtprov
WRDante Pettis14.1 y/rec · 2% tgtprov
TEJuwan Johnson11.5 y/rec · 16% tgtB
OLUnit20% prs allw · 3.8 RB y/carC−†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Cesar Ruiz)
Defense
DLCameron Jordan10.5 sk · 1.5 prs/gA+
DLDavon Godchaux0.0 sk · 0.1 prs/gC+
DLBryan Bresee2.5 sk · 0.7 prs/gA−
LBCarl Granderson2.7 tkl/g · 11 TFLB
LBDemario Davis5.9 tkl/g · 6 TFLA+
LBPete Werner3.8 tkl/g · 4 TFLA−
LBChase Young2.4 tkl/g · 11 TFLB
CBKool-Aid McKinstry17 PBU · 3 INT—
CBAlontae Taylor11 PBU · 2 INT—
CBIsaac Yiadom0 PBU · 0 INT—
SJustin Reid3.6 tkl/g · 2 TFLA−
SJonas Sanker3.9 tkl/g · 3 TFLA−
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
JAX @ DEN
2.7 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
DEN −3.0
Opening line: DEN −3.0 Lean
Total
O/U 48.8
Open 45.5 · over 3.3
Team Efficiency vs League Average
JAX+0.8%15th/32
-0.0 off · +0.8 def
DEN+6.0%2nd/32
+0.5 off · +5.4 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors DEN by 5.7, vs 3.0 at the opener — leans 2.7 further to DEN.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land above the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field +2.1Team-strength +2.5Efficiency +0.2
Key injury
Justin Strnad (LB) Out · Karene Reid (LB) Out
Weather
62°F · wind 3 mph
The facts — for your own read
DEN
3rd down 40%
RZ TD 65%
Def 3rd-down stop 71%
TO margin +3
JAX
3rd down 36%
RZ TD 64%
Def 3rd-down stop 63%
TO margin +2
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
JAX
Offense
QBTrevor Lawrence57% cmp · 6.6 y/attB−
RBTravis Etienne Jr.4.3 y/car · 7 TDC+
WRBrian Thomas Jr.14.6 y/rec · 15% tgtA
WRJakobi Meyers10.7 y/rec · 8% tgtB−
WRParker Washington14.7 y/rec · 17% tgtA
TEBrenton Strange11.4 y/rec · 10% tgtB
OLUnit20% prs allw · 4.3 RB y/carC+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLJosh Hines-Allen9.0 sk · 2.2 prs/gA+
DLDaVon Hamilton1.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB
DLArik Armstead5.5 sk · 0.8 prs/gA
DLTravon Walker3.5 sk · 1.2 prs/gA
LBFoyesade Oluokun6.1 tkl/g · 5 TFLA+
LBDevin Lloyd3.8 tkl/g · 6 TFLA−
LBDennis Gardeck2.5 tkl/g · 6 TFLB
CBJarrian Jones8 PBU · 3 INT—
CBGreg Newsome II9 PBU · 1 INT—
CBJourdan Lewis10 PBU · 2 INT—
SEric Murray3.6 tkl/g · 2 TFLA−
SAndrew Wingard3.9 tkl/g · 3 TFLA−
DEN
Offense
QBBo Nix60% cmp · 6.1 y/attB−
RBRJ Harvey3.6 y/car · 7 TDD
RBAdam Prentice4.3 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRCourtland Sutton13.4 y/rec · 19% tgtA−
WRTroy Franklin10.9 y/rec · 15% tgtB−
WRPat Bryant11.8 y/rec · 7% tgtB
TEEvan Engram9.2 y/rec · 12% tgtC
OLUnit15% prs allw · 4.5 RB y/carB+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLZach Allen8.5 sk · 3.1 prs/gA+
DLD.J. Jones4.5 sk · 0.7 prs/gA−
DLJohn Franklin-Myers7.5 sk · 1.6 prs/gA+
LBJonathon Cooper2.0 tkl/g · 9 TFLB−
LBAlex Singleton6.2 tkl/g · 3 TFLA+
LBDre Greenlaw3.4 tkl/g · 2 TFLA−
LBNik Bonitto2.2 tkl/g · 15 TFLB−
CBPat Surtain II13 PBU · 1 INT—
CBRiley Moss19 PBU · 1 INT—
CBJa'Quan McMillian10 PBU · 3 INT—
STalanoa Hufanga5.2 tkl/g · 7 TFLA+
SP.J. Locke2.1 tkl/g · 1 TFLB−
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
CIN @ MIA
2.6 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
MIA −1.5
Opening line: MIA −1.5 Lean
Total
O/U 44.0
Open 50.5 · under 6.5
Team Efficiency vs League Average
CIN-4.0%29th/32
+0.1 off · -4.1 def
MIA-0.2%19th/32
+0.2 off · -0.4 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors MIA by 4.1, vs 1.5 at the opener — leans 2.6 further to MIA.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land above the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field +2.1Team-strength +1.2Efficiency +1.3QB out: Tagovailoa context
Key injury
Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) Out · Noah Fant (TE) Out
Weather
81°F · wind 7 mph
The facts — for your own read
MIA
3rd down 25%
RZ TD 55%
Def 3rd-down stop 72%
TO margin -2
CIN
3rd down 40%
RZ TD 59%
Def 3rd-down stop 55%
TO margin -1
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
CIN
Offense
QBJoe Burrow62% cmp · 6.5 y/attB
RBChase Brown4.4 y/car · 6 TDC+
WRJa'Marr Chase11.3 y/rec · 27% tgtB−
WRTee Higgins14.3 y/rec · 15% tgtA
WRAndrei Iosivas13.2 y/rec · 9% tgtA−
TEMike Gesicki11.0 y/rec · 6% tgtB−
OLUnit20% prs allw · 4.3 RB y/carC+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLJoseph Ossai↑injout
DLT.J. Slaton Jr.3.0 sk · 0.7 prs/gA−
DLB.J. Hill4.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA−
DLMyles Murphy5.5 sk · 1.0 prs/gA
LBDemetrius Knight Jr.4.6 tkl/g · 4 TFLA
LBBarrett Carter4.8 tkl/g · 1 TFLA+
LBOren Burks1.9 tkl/g · 1 TFLC+
CBDax Hill11 PBU · 1 INT—
CBDJ Turner II18 PBU · 2 INT—
CBJalen Davis1 PBU · 1 INT—
SJordan Battle5.4 tkl/g · 2 TFLA+
SGeno Stone5.2 tkl/g · 4 TFLA+
MIA
Offense
QBQuinn Ewers60% cmp · 6.8 y/attprov
RBDe'Von Achane5.7 y/car · 8 TDA
RBAlec Ingold4.5 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRJaylen Waddle14.2 y/rec · 19% tgtA
WRMalik Washington6.9 y/rec · 12% tgtD
WRNick Westbrook-Ikhine8.1 y/rec · 4% tgtprov
TEDarren Waller11.8 y/rec · 7% tgtB
OLUnit20% prs allw · 4.8 RB y/carB+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLChop Robinson4.0 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLZach Sieler5.5 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLBenito Jones1.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
DLBradley Chubb8.5 sk · 1.7 prs/gA+
LBJordyn Brooks8.1 tkl/g · 13 TFLA+
LBTyrel Dodson6.2 tkl/g · 10 TFLA+
LBCameron Goode1.1 tkl/gD+
CBJack Jones6 PBU · 1 INT—
CBJason Marshall Jr.4 PBU · 1 INT—
CBRasul Douglas13 PBU · 2 INT—
SAshtyn Davis4.0 tkl/g · 3 TFLA
SMinkah Fitzpatrick↑injout
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
GB @ CHI
line not posted
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
CHI —
Opening line: not posted —
Total
O/U 46.8
Open not posted
Team Efficiency vs League Average
GB+3.3%5th/32
+3.2 off · +0.1 def
CHI-0.1%18th/32
+0.8 off · -0.9 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors GB by 3.4, vs nan at the opener — leans nan further to GB.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land below the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +2.0Efficiency +1.0
Key injury
Amen Ogbongbemiga (LB) Out · Rome Odunze (WR) Out
Weather
37°F · wind 6 mph
The facts — for your own read
CHI
3rd down 43%
RZ TD 69%
Def 3rd-down stop 61%
TO margin +9
GB
3rd down 48%
RZ TD 67%
Def 3rd-down stop 63%
TO margin +1
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
GB
Offense
QBJordan Love62% cmp · 7.3 y/attA−
RBJosh Jacobs3.9 y/car · 13 TDC−
WRChristian Watson17.0 y/rec · 11% tgtA+
WRRomeo Doubs13.5 y/rec · 17% tgtA−
WRJayden Reed10.9 y/rec · 5% tgtB−
TELuke Musgrave10.4 y/rec · 6% tgtC+
OLUnit21% prs allw · 4.3 RB y/carC+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLRashan Gary7.5 sk · 1.7 prs/gA+
DLColby Wooden0.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB
DLKarl Brooks0.5 sk · 0.6 prs/gB+
DLKingsley Enagbare2.0 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
LBEdgerrin Cooper5.6 tkl/g · 4 TFLA+
LBQuay Walker6.2 tkl/g · 9 TFLA+
LBIsaiah McDuffie4.3 tkl/g · 3 TFLA
CBKeisean Nixon17 PBU · 1 INT—
CBCarrington Valentine5 PBU · 1 INT—
CBJavon Bullard3 PBU · 0 INT—
SEvan Williams4.6 tkl/g · 4 TFLA
SXavier McKinney4.9 tkl/gA+
CHI
Offense
QBCaleb Williams55% cmp · 6.6 y/attC+
RBD'Andre Swift4.8 y/car · 10 TDB
WRRome Odunze↑injout
WRDJ Moore12.8 y/rec · 14% tgtB+
WRLuther Burden III↑injout
TEColston Loveland12.9 y/rec · 16% tgtA−
OLUnit15% prs allw · 4.8 RB y/carA
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLMontez Sweat11.0 sk · 1.7 prs/gA+
DLGrady Jarrett1.5 sk · 0.7 prs/gA−
DLGervon Dexter Sr.6.0 sk · 1.1 prs/gA
DLAustin Booker5.5 sk · 1.6 prs/gA+
LBNoah Sewell3.5 tkl/g · 3 TFLA−
LBT.J. Edwards5.0 tkl/g · 2 TFLA+
LBD'Marco Jackson2.8 tkl/g · 3 TFLB
CBJaylon Johnson4 PBU · 1 INT—
CBNahshon Wright12 PBU · 5 INT—
CBC.J. Gardner-Johnson5 PBU · 2 INT—
SJaquan Brisker4.7 tkl/g · 2 TFLA
SKevin Byard III4.3 tkl/g · 6 TFLA
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
NE @ BAL
4.0 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
NE +2.5
Opening line: BAL −2.5 Lean
Total
O/U 46.8
Open 48.5 · under 1.7
Team Efficiency vs League Average
NE+0.1%17th/32
+1.3 off · -1.2 def
BAL+2.2%9th/32
+1.4 off · +0.8 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors NE by 1.5; the opener favored BAL by 2.5 — leans 4.0 further to NE.
Mostly home field here — the team-strength and efficiency views nearly cancel, so the edge is thin.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +0.1Efficiency +0.9
Key injury
Teddye Buchanan (LB) Out · Jay Higgins (LB) Out
Weather
40°F · wind 2 mph
The facts — for your own read
BAL
3rd down 32%
RZ TD 50%
Def 3rd-down stop 72%
TO margin +5
NE
3rd down 41%
RZ TD 53%
Def 3rd-down stop 67%
TO margin +0
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
NE
Offense
QBDrake Maye62% cmp · 7.7 y/attA
RBTreVeyon Henderson4.7 y/car · 9 TDB
RBJack Westover—
WRStefon Diggs11.3 y/rec · 18% tgtB−
WRKayshon Boutte17.1 y/rec · 10% tgtA+
WRMack Hollins13.1 y/rec · 11% tgtA−
TEHunter Henry12.8 y/rec · 15% tgtB+
OLUnit26% prs allw · 4.7 RB y/carB−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLChristian Barmore3.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA
DLKhyiris Tonga1.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB
DLCory Durden0.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
LBHarold Landry III2.4 tkl/g · 10 TFLB
LBRobert Spillane↑injout
LBChristian Elliss4.1 tkl/g · 2 TFLA
LBK'Lavon Chaisson1.8 tkl/g · 14 TFLC+
CBCarlton Davis III14 PBU · 2 INT—
CBChristian Gonzalez17 PBU · 1 INT—
CBMarcus Jones15 PBU · 4 INT—
SJaylinn Hawkins3.6 tkl/g · 3 TFLA−
SCraig Woodson4.0 tkl/g · 8 TFLA
BAL
Offense
QBLamar Jackson56% cmp · 7.5 y/attB−
RBDerrick Henry5.2 y/car · 16 TDA−
RBPatrick Ricard3.0 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRZay Flowers14.1 y/rec · 25% tgtA−
WRRashod Bateman11.8 y/rec · 8% tgtB
WRDeAndre Hopkins15.0 y/rec · 8% tgtA
TEMark Andrews8.8 y/rec · 15% tgtC−
OLUnit27% prs allw · 5.5 RB y/carB−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLTravis Jones5.0 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLJohn Jenkins1.0 sk · 0.1 prs/gB−
DLBrent Urban0.5 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
LBKyle Van Noy1.1 tkl/g · 4 TFLD+
LBRoquan Smith6.7 tkl/g · 5 TFLA+
LBTrenton Simpson3.4 tkl/g · 4 TFLA−
LBDre'Mont Jones1.9 tkl/g · 7 TFLC+
CBNate Wiggins14 PBU · 3 INT—
CBChidobe Awuzie↑injout
CBMarlon Humphrey13 PBU · 4 INT—
SKyle Hamilton5.1 tkl/g · 7 TFLA+
SAlohi Gilman4.1 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
ATL @ ARI
3.8 from Vegas · mild
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
ARI +2.5
Opening line: ATL −2.5 Lean
Total
O/U 44.1
Open 46.5 · under 2.4
Team Efficiency vs League Average
ATL+1.0%14th/32
+0.9 off · +0.0 def
ARI-3.5%28th/32
-0.2 off · -3.2 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors ARI by 1.3; the opener favored ATL by 2.5 — leans 3.8 further to ARI.
Mostly home field here — the team-strength and efficiency views nearly cancel, so the edge is thin.
Home field +2.1Team-strength -0.4Efficiency -0.1QB out: Penix context
Key injury
Jalen Thompson (S) Out · Darren Hall (CB) Out
Weather
Indoors — no factor
The facts — for your own read
ARI
3rd down 37%
RZ TD 57%
Def 3rd-down stop 61%
TO margin -1
ATL
3rd down 20%
RZ TD 73%
Def 3rd-down stop 62%
TO margin +1
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
ATL
Offense
QBKirk Cousins58% cmp · 6.1 y/attC
RBBijan Robinson5.1 y/car · 7 TDB+
WRDrake London13.5 y/rec · 20% tgtA−
WRDarnell Mooney13.8 y/rec · 13% tgtA−
WRDavid Sills V10.6 y/rec · 6% tgtC+
TEKyle Pitts Sr.10.5 y/rec · 21% tgtC+
OLUnit17% prs allw · 4.6 RB y/carB+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLLaCale London5.0 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLRuke Orhorhoro3.5 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
DLDavid Onyemata1.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
LBLeonard Floyd1.0 tkl/g · 5 TFLD
LBDivine Deablo4.1 tkl/g · 5 TFLA
LBKaden Elliss4.8 tkl/g · 10 TFLA
LBJalon Walker2.1 tkl/g · 5 TFLB−
CBA.J. Terrell Jr.12 PBU · 0 INT—
CBMike Hughes↑injout
CBDee Alford13 PBU · 3 INT—
SJessie Bates III4.5 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
SXavier Watts4.4 tkl/gA
ARI
Offense
QBJacoby Brissett59% cmp · 6.3 y/attB−
RBMichael Carter3.6 y/car · 1 TDD+
WRMarvin Harrison Jr.14.8 y/rec · 10% tgtA
WRMichael Wilson12.9 y/rec · 18% tgtB+
WRXavier Weaver9.6 y/rec · 2% tgtprov
TETrey McBride9.8 y/rec · 24% tgtC
OLUnit26% prs allw · 4.4 RB y/carC†
⚠ 3/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Paris Johnson Jr., Evan Brown)
Defense
DLJosh Sweat12.0 sk · 1.8 prs/gA+
DLCalais Campbell6.5 sk · 1.3 prs/gA
DLWalter Nolen III2.0 sk · 1.4 prs/gprov
DLDarius Robinson1.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
LBAkeem Davis-Gaither5.2 tkl/g · 2 TFLA+
LBCody Simon3.7 tkl/g · 2 TFLA−
LBZaven Collins2.1 tkl/g · 6 TFLB−
CBWill Johnson10 PBU · 0 INT—
CBMax Melton↑injout
CBGarrett Williams5 PBU · 1 INT—
SJalen Thompson↑injout
SBudda Baker5.3 tkl/g · 4 TFLA+
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
LAC @ DAL
0.2 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
LAC +1.5
Opening line: DAL −1.5 Toss-up
Total
O/U 49.2
Open 49.5 · under 0.3
Team Efficiency vs League Average
LAC+1.5%12th/32
-1.2 off · +2.7 def
DAL+1.4%13th/32
+2.6 off · -1.2 def
Why the model differs
Views split
Model favors DAL by 1.3, vs 1.5 at the opener — close to the market here.
Mostly home field here — the team-strength and efficiency views nearly cancel, so the edge is thin.
Home field +2.1Team-strength -1.9Efficiency -0.9
Key injury
DaRon Bland (CB) Out · Derius Davis (WR) Out
Weather
Indoors — no factor
The facts — for your own read
DAL
3rd down 37%
RZ TD 54%
Def 3rd-down stop 64%
TO margin -7
LAC
3rd down 43%
RZ TD 60%
Def 3rd-down stop 70%
TO margin +1
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
LAC
Offense
QBJustin Herbert60% cmp · 6.4 y/attB−
RBOmarion Hampton4.4 y/car · 4 TDC+
RBScott Matlock—
WRLadd McConkey11.9 y/rec · 17% tgtB
WRQuentin Johnston14.0 y/rec · 14% tgtA−
WRKeenan Allen9.5 y/rec · 20% tgtC
TEOronde Gadsden II13.3 y/rec · 11% tgtA−
OLUnit32% prs allw · 4.5 RB y/carC−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLDa'Shawn Hand1.5 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
DLTeair Tart1.0 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
DLJustin Eboigbe6.0 sk · 1.1 prs/gA
LBTuli Tuipulotu2.6 tkl/g · 21 TFLB
LBDaiyan Henley5.1 tkl/g · 5 TFLA+
LBDenzel Perryman3.9 tkl/g · 4 TFLA−
LBKhalil Mack2.0 tkl/g · 6 TFLB−
CBDonte Jackson12 PBU · 4 INT—
CBCam Hart11 PBU · 1 INT—
CBTarheeb Still7 PBU · 0 INT—
SDerwin James Jr.4.7 tkl/g · 6 TFLA
SElijah Molden3.1 tkl/gB+
DAL
Offense
QBDak Prescott64% cmp · 7.2 y/attA
RBJavonte Williams4.8 y/car · 11 TDB
RBHunter Luepke4.4 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRCeeDee Lamb14.4 y/rec · 18% tgtA
WRGeorge Pickens15.4 y/rec · 21% tgtA+
WRRyan Flournoy11.9 y/rec · 9% tgtB
TEJake Ferguson7.3 y/rec · 16% tgtD+
OLUnit19% prs allw · 4.8 RB y/carB+†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Tyler Guyton)
Defense
DLDonovan Ezeiruaku2.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA−
DLOsa Odighizuwa3.5 sk · 1.6 prs/gA+
DLQuinnen Williams2.5 sk · 1.0 prs/gA
DLDante Fowler Jr.3.0 sk · 1.0 prs/gA
LBDeMarvion Overshown3.6 tkl/g · 1 TFLA−
LBLogan Wilson3.4 tkl/gA−
LBKenneth Murray Jr.3.5 tkl/g · 4 TFLA−
CBTrevon Diggs0 PBU · 0 INT—
CBCaelen Carson2 PBU · 0 INT—
CBReddy Steward3 PBU · 0 INT—
SDonovan Wilson3.7 tkl/g · 3 TFLA−
SMalik Hooker3.1 tkl/g · 2 TFLB+
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
MIN @ NYG
1.3 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
NYG +2.5
Opening line: MIN −2.5 Slight lean
Total
O/U 40.1
Open 44.5 · under 4.4
Team Efficiency vs League Average
MIN-1.1%20th/32
-2.4 off · +1.3 def
NYG-2.1%23rd/32
-1.1 off · -1.0 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors MIN by 1.2, vs 2.5 at the opener — leans 1.3 further to NYG.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land above the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +4.0Efficiency +0.8
Key injury
Kayvon Thibodeaux (LB) Out · Beaux Collins (WR) Out
Weather
46°F · wind 20 mph
The facts — for your own read
NYG
3rd down 34%
RZ TD 70%
Def 3rd-down stop 63%
TO margin -3
MIN
3rd down 27%
RZ TD 67%
Def 3rd-down stop 63%
TO margin -8
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
MIN
Offense
QBJ.J. McCarthy51% cmp · 6.0 y/attD+
RBAaron Jones Sr.4.2 y/car · 2 TDC
RBC.J. Ham1.7 y/car · 2 TDprov
WRJustin Jefferson12.5 y/rec · 26% tgtB+
WRJordan Addison14.5 y/rec · 14% tgtA
WRJalen Nailor15.3 y/rec · 10% tgtA+
TET.J. Hockenson8.6 y/rec · 12% tgtC−
OLUnit33% prs allw · 4.7 RB y/carC†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Christian Darrisaw)
Defense
DLJonathan Allen3.5 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLJalen Redmond6.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA−
DLJavon Hargrave↑injout
LBDallas Turner2.8 tkl/g · 11 TFLB
LBBlake Cashman7.8 tkl/g · 4 TFLA+
LBEric Wilson4.9 tkl/g · 17 TFLA+
LBAndrew Van Ginkel3.2 tkl/g · 11 TFLB+
CBIsaiah Rodgers4 PBU · 1 INT—
CBByron Murphy Jr.7 PBU · 2 INT—
CBTheo Jackson1 PBU · 0 INT—
SHarrison Smith3.2 tkl/g · 3 TFLB+
SJay Ward2.0 tkl/g · 1 TFLB−
NYG
Offense
QBJaxson Dart57% cmp · 6.0 y/attC
RBTyrone Tracy Jr.4.2 y/car · 2 TDC
WRWan'Dale Robinson11.0 y/rec · 24% tgtB−
WRDarius Slayton14.5 y/rec · 11% tgtA
WRIsaiah Hodgins11.5 y/rec · 3% tgtprov
TETheo Johnson11.7 y/rec · 13% tgtB
OLUnit28% prs allw · 4.4 RB y/carC−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLRakeem Nunez-Roches↑injout
DLDexter Lawrence II0.5 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
DLRoy Robertson-Harris0.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB+
LBBrian Burns3.1 tkl/g · 22 TFLB+
LBBobby Okereke6.3 tkl/g · 2 TFLA+
LBDarius Muasau3.0 tkl/g · 2 TFLB+
LBChauncey Golston1.9 tkl/g · 5 TFLB−
CBPaulson Adebo8 PBU · 1 INT—
CBCor'Dale Flott11 PBU · 1 INT—
CBDru Phillips12 PBU · 2 INT—
SDane Belton5.3 tkl/g · 3 TFLA+
SJevon Holland3.9 tkl/gA−
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
SF @ IND
6.2 from Vegas · notable
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
IND +5.5
Opening line: SF −5.5 Strong lean
Total
O/U 51.8
Open 46.5 · over 5.3
Team Efficiency vs League Average
SF+0.5%16th/32
+4.6 off · -4.0 def
IND+2.2%10th/32
+1.7 off · +0.5 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors IND by 0.7; the opener favored SF by 5.5 — leans 6.2 further to IND.
Mostly home field here — the team-strength and efficiency views nearly cancel, so the edge is thin.
Home field +2.1Team-strength -1.3Efficiency +0.9QB out: Jones -4.0QB out: Jones -4.0
Key injury
Anthony Richardson (QB) Out · Kurtis Rourke (QB) Out
Weather
Indoors — no factor
The facts — for your own read
IND
3rd down 33%
RZ TD 68%
Def 3rd-down stop 66%
TO margin -1
SF
3rd down 50%
RZ TD 76%
Def 3rd-down stop 63%
TO margin -2
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
SF
Offense
QBBrock Purdy64% cmp · 7.2 y/attA
RBChristian McCaffrey3.8 y/car · 10 TDD+
RBKyle Juszczyk-2.0 y/car · 0 TDprov
WRJauan Jennings12.3 y/rec · 15% tgtB+
WRRicky Pearsall↑injout
WRKendrick Bourne14.9 y/rec · 8% tgtA
TEGeorge Kittle10.9 y/rec · 11% tgtB−
OLUnit18% prs allw · 4.0 RB y/carC+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLBryce Huff4.0 sk · 1.3 prs/gA
DLKalia Davis0.5 sk · 0.2 prs/gB−
DLAlfred Collins1.0 sk · 0.4 prs/gB+
DLSam Okuayinonu3.0 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
LBDee Winters4.8 tkl/g · 11 TFLA
LBTatum Bethune5.4 tkl/g · 4 TFLA+
LBLuke Gifford1.7 tkl/gC
CBRenardo Green↑injout
CBDeommodore Lenoir5 PBU · 2 INT—
CBUpton Stout6 PBU · 0 INT—
SJi'Ayir Brown3.9 tkl/g · 2 TFLA−
SMalik Mustapha4.8 tkl/g · 4 TFLA
IND
Offense
QBPhilip Rivers60% cmp · 5.6 y/attprov
RBJonathan Taylor4.9 y/car · 18 TDB
WRMichael Pittman Jr.9.9 y/rec · 20% tgtC+
WRAlec Pierce21.3 y/rec · 14% tgtA+
WRJosh Downs9.6 y/rec · 15% tgtC
TETyler Warren10.8 y/rec · 20% tgtB−
OLUnit19% prs allw · 4.7 RB y/carB†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Bernhard Raimann)
Defense
DLKwity Paye4.0 sk · 0.8 prs/gA−
DLGrover Stewart0.5 sk · 0.4 prs/gB+
DLNeville Gallimore3.5 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
DLLaiatu Latu8.5 sk · 1.8 prs/gA+
LBGermaine Pratt5.9 tkl/g · 6 TFLA+
LBZaire Franklin5.4 tkl/g · 7 TFLA+
LBAustin Ajiake1.7 tkl/gC+
CBSauce Gardner↑injout
CBJaylon Jones4 PBU · 0 INT—
CBKenny Moore II6 PBU · 1 INT—
SNick Cross5.5 tkl/g · 5 TFLA+
SCam Bynum3.7 tkl/g · 3 TFLA−
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
TB @ CAR
1.9 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
CAR +2.5
Opening line: TB −2.5 Slight lean
Total
O/U 43.4
Open 45.5 · under 2.1
Team Efficiency vs League Average
TB-3.4%27th/32
-2.6 off · -0.8 def
CAR-2.3%24th/32
+0.1 off · -2.4 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors TB by 0.6, vs 2.5 at the opener — leans 1.9 further to CAR.
Both the team-strength and efficiency views land above the market, so the gap isn’t one noisy component.
Home field -2.1Team-strength +1.7Efficiency +1.1
Key injury
Trevin Wallace (LB) Out
Weather
61°F · wind 8 mph
The facts — for your own read
CAR
3rd down 35%
RZ TD 50%
Def 3rd-down stop 55%
TO margin +1
TB
3rd down 33%
RZ TD 61%
Def 3rd-down stop 63%
TO margin +3
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
TB
Offense
QBBaker Mayfield59% cmp · 6.3 y/attC+
RBBucky Irving3.4 y/car · 1 TDD
WRMike Evans12.3 y/rec · 10% tgtB+
WREmeka Egbuka14.9 y/rec · 21% tgtA
WRChris Godwin Jr.10.9 y/rec · 9% tgtB−
TECade Otton9.7 y/rec · 14% tgtC
OLUnit16% prs allw · 4.2 RB y/carB−
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLElijah Roberts2.0 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
DLVita Vea4.5 sk · 1.2 prs/gA
DLLogan Hall1.5 sk · 0.4 prs/gB+
LBYaya Diaby2.2 tkl/g · 13 TFLB−
LBSirVocea Dennis4.9 tkl/g · 10 TFLA+
LBLavonte David5.0 tkl/g · 8 TFLA+
LBHaason Reddick1.9 tkl/g · 6 TFLC+
CBJamel Dean9 PBU · 3 INT—
CBKindle Vildor3 PBU · 1 INT—
CBJacob Parrish7 PBU · 2 INT—
SAntoine Winfield Jr.4.3 tkl/g · 4 TFLA
STykee Smith5.0 tkl/g · 6 TFLA+
CAR
Offense
QBBryce Young59% cmp · 6.0 y/attC
RBRico Dowdle4.5 y/car · 6 TDB−
WRTetairoa McMillan14.6 y/rec · 22% tgtA
WRXavier Legette10.3 y/rec · 11% tgtC+
WRJalen Coker12.6 y/rec · 10% tgtB+
TETommy Tremble9.0 y/rec · 7% tgtC−
OLUnit22% prs allw · 4.5 RB y/carC+
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLTershawn Wharton↑injout
DLA'Shawn Robinson2.5 sk · 0.6 prs/gA−
DLDerrick Brown5.0 sk · 1.0 prs/gA
LBNic Scourton2.1 tkl/g · 7 TFLB−
LBChristian Rozeboom5.9 tkl/g · 7 TFLA+
LBTrevin Wallace↑injout
LBD.J. Wonnum2.0 tkl/g · 4 TFLB−
CBMike Jackson23 PBU · 5 INT—
CBJaycee Horn9 PBU · 5 INT—
CBChau Smith-Wade2 PBU · 1 INT—
STre'von Moehrig4.8 tkl/g · 14 TFLA
SNick Scott5.2 tkl/gA+
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.
LA @ SEA
line not posted
Model pick · vs Tuesday line
SEA —
Opening line: not posted —
Total
O/U 47.5
Open not posted
Team Efficiency vs League Average
LA+6.4%1st/32
+5.7 off · +0.7 def
SEA+3.8%4th/32
+0.3 off · +3.5 def
Why the model differs
Elo + EPA agree
Model favors SEA by 0.5; the opener favored LA by nan — leans nan further to LA.
Mostly home field here — the team-strength and efficiency views nearly cancel, so the edge is thin.
Home field +2.1Team-strength -0.3Efficiency -0.5
Key injury
Davante Adams (WR) Doubtful
Weather
51°F · wind 17 mph
The facts — for your own read
SEA
3rd down 35%
RZ TD 56%
Def 3rd-down stop 74%
TO margin +1
LA
3rd down 31%
RZ TD 79%
Def 3rd-down stop 65%
TO margin +6
Injuries and facts shown for context; the pick is based on season-long team ratings.
Starters & grades
LA
Offense
QBMatthew Stafford61% cmp · 7.6 y/attA−
RBKyren Williams4.7 y/car · 12 TDB
WRPuka Nacua13.4 y/rec · 28% tgtA−
WRDavante Adams↑injout
WRKonata Mumpfield8.8 y/rec · 4% tgtprov
TEColby Parkinson11.0 y/rec · 9% tgtB−
OLUnit16% prs allw · 4.9 RB y/carA
✓ 5/5 healthy
Defense
DLBraden Fiske5.0 sk · 0.9 prs/gA
DLPoona Ford3.0 sk · 0.5 prs/gB+
DLKobie Turner7.0 sk · 1.2 prs/gA
LBByron Young3.3 tkl/g · 14 TFLB+
LBNate Landman5.8 tkl/g · 10 TFLA+
LBOmar Speights4.1 tkl/g · 1 TFLA
LBJared Verse2.5 tkl/g · 14 TFLB
CBEmmanuel Forbes Jr.18 PBU · 3 INT—
CBDarious Williams8 PBU · 1 INT—
CBCobie Durant14 PBU · 6 INT—
SKam Curl5.9 tkl/g · 2 TFLA+
SKamren Kinchens3.9 tkl/g · 1 TFLA−
SEA
Offense
QBSam Darnold63% cmp · 7.8 y/attA
RBKenneth Walker III4.7 y/car · 9 TDB
RBRobbie Ouzts—
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba14.6 y/rec · 31% tgtA
WRCooper Kupp12.1 y/rec · 15% tgtB
WRRashid Shaheed14.8 y/rec · 6% tgtA
TEAJ Barner10.1 y/rec · 12% tgtC+
OLUnit18% prs allw · 4.3 RB y/carB−†
⚠ 4/5 healthy
† healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in (out: Charles Cross)
Defense
DLJarran Reed2.5 sk · 0.7 prs/gA−
DLByron Murphy II9.0 sk · 1.3 prs/gA
DLLeonard Williams8.0 sk · 1.7 prs/gA+
LBDeMarcus Lawrence2.3 tkl/g · 14 TFLB
LBDrake Thomas4.3 tkl/g · 11 TFLA
LBErnest Jones IV6.3 tkl/g · 5 TFLA+
LBBoye Mafe1.3 tkl/g · 4 TFLC−
CBDevon Witherspoon11 PBU · 1 INT—
CBRiq Woolen16 PBU · 1 INT—
CBNick Emmanwori15 PBU · 1 INT—
SCoby Bryant3.3 tkl/g · 4 TFLB+
SJulian Love3.5 tkl/g · 1 TFLA−
Grades = position-relative season percentile: A ≥85th · B 46–85 · C 30–46 · D <30 (min sample: QB 100 att, RB 40 car, WR/TE 18 rec, def 6 games; below = prov). Stats: cmp/y-att (QB), y/car (RB), y/rec & tgt-share (WR/TE), sk & prs/g = sacks+QB-hits (DL), tkl/g (LB/S). CB shows PBU/INT context, no grade (coverage % not measurable here). ↑inj = listed starter out. OL graded as a unit (% pressure allowed + RB y/car); ✓ 5/5 healthy = clean grade, ⚠ starters out = † dimmed (healthy-unit grade; may not hold with backups in). Informative context only.