SharperGamblerSHARPERGAMBLER
SharperGambler // Football Desk

Free NFL Weekly Research Report

. Anything after this (late injuries, news, line moves) is not reflected.

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01This Week's Model Picks

Mild model is 2 to 5 points off the market lineNotable model is 5 or more points off the market line

*

Sides

  • notableKC @ MIAMIA +11.5
  • notablePHI @ CHICHI +4.5
  • mildCIN @ PITPIT +3.5
  • mildTEN @ NYGNYG -3.0
  • mildCAR @ CLECLE +2.5
  • mildLA @ DENDEN +2.5
  • mildNYJ @ DETDET -6.5

Totals

  • notableTEN @ NYGOVER 39.5
  • notableLAC @ BUFUNDER 50.5
  • mildSEA @ WASOVER 40.5
  • mildCIN @ PITOVER 42.5
  • mildBAL @ DALUNDER 52.5
  • mildARI @ SFOVER 47.5
  • mildPHI @ CHIOVER 41.5
  • mildKC @ MIAUNDER 46.5

02Week at a Glance

GameOpenCurrentSG ModelOpenCurrentSG Model
ATL @ GBFINALSpreadGB -6.5GB -4.5GB -5.1Total46.542.544.8
CAR @ CLEFINALSpreadCAR -2.5CAR -2.5CLE -0.6Total40.541.543.6
CIN @ PITFINALSpreadCIN -2.5CIN -3.5PIT -0.6Total45.542.545.5
HOU @ INDFINALSpreadHOU -2.5HOU -1.5HOU -1.1Total45.541.542.3
KC @ MIAFINALSpreadKC -8.5KC -10.0KC -1.3Total44.545.544.4
LAC @ BUFFINALSpreadBUF -4.5BUF -7.0BUF -7.8Total49.550.544.9
NE @ JAXFINALSpreadJAX -2.5JAX -3.0JAX -1.6Total45.546.547.2
NYJ @ DETFINALSpreadDET -7.0DET -7.0DET -9.1Total48.549.547.5
GameOpenCurrentSG ModelOpenCurrentSG Model
SEA @ WASFINALSpreadSEA -2.5SEA -8.5SEA -5.8Total41.540.545.2
TEN @ NYGFINALSpreadNYG -5.5NYG -2.5NYG -6.2Total43.537.548.3
ARI @ SFFINALSpreadSF -8.5SF -7.5SF -8.0Total47.548.549.8
MIN @ TBFINALSpreadTB -1.5TB -1.5MIN -2.1Total45.542.542.9
BAL @ DALFINALSpreadBAL -3.0BAL -3.0BAL -1.2Total52.553.549.8
LV @ NOFINALSpreadNO -3.0NO -3.5NO -4.7Total45.543.545.8
LA @ DENFINALSpreadLA -2.5LA -1.5pick’emTotal46.544.545.7
PHI @ CHISpreadCHI -1.5PHI -3.5CHI -0.8Total47.541.543.8

Open = the opening line the model references. Current = DraftKings, most recent capture before each game's kickoff (capture time differs by game). QB = starting QB out. Spread first, then the total.

03This week's games

ATL @ GBFINAL
ATL 35, GB 14
ATL won by 21 · 49 total points
CAR @ CLEFINAL
CAR 18, CLE 21
CLE won by 3 · 39 total points
CIN @ PITFINAL
CIN 27, PIT 30
PIT won by 3 · 57 total points
HOU @ INDFINAL
HOU 17, IND 19
IND won by 2 · 36 total points
KC @ MIAFINAL
KC 24, MIA 10
KC won by 14 · 34 total points
LAC @ BUFFINAL
LAC 16, BUF 24
BUF won by 8 · 40 total points
NE @ JAXFINAL
NE 6, JAX 35
JAX won by 29 · 41 total points
NYJ @ DETFINAL
NYJ 24, DET 31
DET won by 7 · 55 total points
SEA @ WASFINAL
SEA 31, WAS 33
WAS won by 2 · 64 total points
TEN @ NYGFINAL
TEN 7, NYG 12
NYG won by 5 · 19 total points
ARI @ SFFINAL
ARI 30, SF 36
SF won by 6 · 66 total points
MIN @ TBFINAL
MIN 23, TB 16
MIN won by 7 · 39 total points
BAL @ DALFINAL
BAL 34, DAL 31
BAL won by 3 · 65 total points
LV @ NOFINAL
LV 35, NO 27
LV won by 8 · 62 total points
LA @ DENFINAL
LA 26, DEN 30
DEN won by 4 · 56 total points
PHI @ CHI0.7 from Vegas · agrees
Model pick · vs opening linePHI +1.5
TotalO/U 43.8
PHI 47%CHI 53%

This model is for informational purposes only and is not intended for gambling.

* These are the games where the model diverges from the market, locked against the DraftKings line on Tuesday afternoon, Sep 22 2026. Each price is the number we locked at and it does not change. Compare it to the current line in the table above to see how the market has moved since. Games where the model agrees with the market are not listed. These are research picks at a locked price, not a betting record. The Tuesday morning lock begins next week.

A research read on how the model sees each game versus the opening line. Kickoff weather: forecasts from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) via api.met.no (https://api.met.no/), licensed CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). We convert to Fahrenheit and miles per hour; each forecast shows its capture time.