Tools
loading…How the opening DraftKings line has moved to now, for upcoming games. A line that moves is a line the market is reacting to. Sharp bettors watch these shifts closely. Games with a notable move are highlighted and sorted to the top.
Ten calculators every serious bettor reaches for. Each one updates as you type, and each comes with a note on how to use it and why it matters. These are teaching tools built for private beta, not betting advice, and they make no promise about the outcome of any wager.
What it does. It turns a price into every format: American, decimal, fractional, and the win probability that price implies.
How to use it. Type a number into the American, decimal, or implied probability box. The rest fill in for you.
Why it matters. Every tool here starts from a clean probability, and books quote prices in different formats. Converting fast keeps you from misreading a price and betting the wrong number.
What it does. It shows what a bet is worth on average, in dollars and as a share of your stake.
How to use it. Enter your stake, the odds you are getting, and your honest read on the true win probability. That last number can come from a model or from the fair price at a sharp book.
Why it matters. A positive number means the bet pays you over time. A negative one means it slowly bleeds you. Run this before you place anything.
What it does. It sizes your bet from your edge and your bankroll, so you grow your money as fast as the math allows without risking it all.
How to use it. Enter the odds, your true win probability, your bankroll, and pick full, half, or quarter Kelly.
Why it matters. Bet the same amount every time and you leave money on the table. Bet too much and you blow up the account. Kelly sits in between. Most sharps use half or quarter Kelly, because no probability estimate is perfect and a smaller fraction protects you when yours is off.
What it does. It combines several bets into one ticket and shows the combined odds, payout, and profit.
How to use it. Add a leg for each bet, type each price in American odds, and set your stake. Use Add leg and Remove to change the count.
Why it matters. Parlays pay big, but the odds stack against you and every leg has to hit. Seeing the real combined price next to the payout tells you whether the reward is worth needing all of them to win.
What it does. It splits a stake across both sides of a market so you lock the same result no matter who wins, and it tells you if there is a guaranteed profit.
How to use it. Enter the two prices, ideally from two different books, and your total stake. You get the split, the payout, and the return on your money.
Why it matters. When two books disagree by enough, betting both sides can guarantee a profit with no risk at all. The same math shows you how to hedge out of a bet you already hold, to bank a profit or cut a loss.
What it does. It turns a free or bonus bet into guaranteed cash by hedging the other side, and shows your conversion rate.
How to use it. Enter the bonus amount, the odds you place the bonus bet at, and the odds on the opposite side (usually at a second book).
Why it matters. A bonus bet pays only the profit, not your stake back. Placing it on a longshot and hedging the other side locks in the most real cash. Conversions near 70 percent are common, and longer odds on the bonus bet usually convert better.
What it does. It builds every smaller parlay from your list of picks, then shows how many bets that makes, your total risk, and the payout if all your picks win.
How to use it. Add your picks with their prices, choose the parlay size (say, by 2s), and set the stake per combination.
Why it matters. A round robin spreads your picks across a bunch of small parlays, so one miss does not automatically kill the whole ticket. The catch is that your total stake climbs fast as you add picks, and this makes that cost plain before you commit.
What it does. It estimates the chance of each score, and of a total finishing over or under a line, using the Poisson model that fits low scoring sports like soccer, hockey, and baseball.
How to use it. Enter the expected total (the projected goals or runs) and the line you want to test.
Why it matters. It turns a raw projection into real probabilities for totals and exact scores, so you can hold those numbers against the book's price and see where the value sits.
What it does. It prices what an extra half point is really worth, by turning the push chance at a key number into added win probability and showing the fair odds you should pay.
How to use it. Enter your current win probability at the whole number line and the push probability at that number. As a guide for the NFL, the 3 is worth about 9 to 10 percent and the 7 about 5 to 6 percent.
Why it matters. Buying or selling a half point only pays off when the price is below what the point is truly worth. This shows that break even line, so you do not overpay to move off a key number.
What it does. It converts between a win probability and an estimated point spread, using a normal model tuned to each sport's usual margin of victory.
How to use it. Pick the sport, then enter a win probability to get the spread, or a spread to get the win probability. Change either box and the other updates.
Why it matters. It puts a moneyline and a spread on the same scale, so you can see which side of a game the market is pricing more generously. Treat it as an estimate, since real margins swing game to game.
Rough margin models: NFL 13.5, CFB 16, NBA 12, CBB 11, NHL 6.5, MLB 4.2 points of standard deviation. Estimates only.