Poisson Calculator
All calculatorsThis calculator takes an expected score and turns it into the chance of going over or under a line, plus the full distribution of likely scores. It suits low scoring sports where goals or runs arrive independently.
What it does. It estimates the chance of each score, and of a total finishing over or under a line, using the Poisson model that fits low scoring sports like soccer, hockey, and baseball.
How to use it. Enter the expected total (the projected goals or runs) and the line you want to test.
Why it matters. It turns a raw projection into real probabilities for totals and exact scores, so you can hold those numbers against the book's price and see where the value sits.
The guide behind this tool, in plain language.
Other tools that pair well with this one.